Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
